National Bureau of Statistics’ GDP Report says Nigeria is Back into Recession

According to the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report, Nigeria has officially moved into recession as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 fell by 3.62 in the three months to September, due to the significant decline in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic which stalled global economic activities for months.

Nigeria last experienced a recession in 2016, and this new report makes it the second recession under the President Muhamadu Buhari-led administration.

NBS, in its GDP report for Q3’ 2020 said that Nigeria recorded GDP growth of -3.62% in Q3’ 2020, compared to -6.10% recorded in Q2 2020 and 2.28% positive growth recorded in Q3 2019. Oil GDP fell by -13.89% from -6.63% in Q2 2020, Non-Oil GDP fell by -2.51% from -6.05% in Q2 2020, while Treasury bills now -0.95%.

“The World Bank forecast the Nigerian economy will contract by 3.2 per cent in 2020, assuming the spread of COVID-19 is contained by the third quarter. The International Monetary Fund forecast a contraction of 4.3 per cent. Before the pandemic and its attendant disruption, the Nigerian economy was expected to grow by 2.1% in 2020”, Premium Times explains.

The NBS said in its report that:

The performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions to movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As these restrictions were lifted, businesses re-opened and international travel and trading activities resumed, some economic activities have returned to positive growth. A total of 18 economic activities recorded positive growth in Q3 2020, compared to 13 activities in Q2 2020.

On the performance of the Non-oil sector i.e Telecommunications, Agriculture, Construction, Financial and Insurance, and Public Administration, NBS stated:

The non-oil sector grew by –2.51% in real terms during the reference quarter, which is –4.36% points lower than the rate recorded in Q3 2019 but 3.54% points higher than in the second quarter of 2020.

Meaning, the non-oil sector contributed 91.27% to the nation’s GDP in the third quarter of 2020, higher than its share in the third quarter of 2019 (90.23% ) and the second quarter of 2020 (91.07%).

You can view this report here:

Q3 2020 GDP report published @ https://t.co/KG0BFIpfLz

Q3 2020 Real GDP contracted for second consecutive quarter by -3.62% (-6.10% in Q2 2020 & 2.28% in Q3 2019).

Cumulative GDP for the first 9 months of 2020 therefore stood at -2.48%. pic.twitter.com/d9f1iGLjUe

— Dr Yemi Kale (@sgyemikale) November 21, 2020

Q2 2020 GDP report published @ https://t.co/KG0BFIpfLz

Agric real GDP grew by 1.39% compared to 1.58% in Q2 2020 & 2.28% in Q3 2019. pic.twitter.com/89x822AiJu

— Dr Yemi Kale (@sgyemikale) November 21, 2020

Q2 2020 GDP report published @ https://t.co/KG0BFIpfLz

Livestock under Agric real GDP grew by 2.29% compared to 2.26% in Q2 2020 & 0.02% in Q3 2019.

Forestry under Agric real GDP grew by 2.55 % compared to 1.08% in Q2 2020 & 3.78% in Q3 2019. pic.twitter.com/k9a19abTa3

— Dr Yemi Kale (@sgyemikale) November 21, 2020