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Must Watch! Sanusi predicted Oil Price Crash, Devastating Effect on Nigeria’s Economy & Naira in 2011

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CBN-Sanusi 1As Nigerians continue to suffer the effect of the crash of global oil prices which in effect led to the record-setting devaluation of the Naira against the Dollar, a video from 2011 featuring then Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (now Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II of Kano) predicting Nigeria’s present economic crisis.

Sanusi was at a high profile event organized by the Newspaper Proprietors’ Association of Nigeria (NPAN). Other panelists at the event included Coordinating Minister For the Economy and Minister of Finance – Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Minister of Petroleum Resources/OPEC President – Diezani Alison-Madueke.

The main point of Sanusi’s speech was making a case for the removal of oil subsidies.

A newspaper report which was issued in 2011 summarizes his points;

From Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, came a warning yesterday that Nigeria is heading for serious economic crisis. His warning followed his disclosure that the country lost $16 billion to subsidies this year (2011).

Sanusi said as a result, Nigeria’s foreign reserves had been depleted such that serious economic crisis would befall the nation if the oil prices crash continues in the international market. He said that withdrawal of subsidy on fuel would stave off the crisis.

Direct Quote from Sanusi;

“We don’t have that shock absorber today. If the oil prices crashes again by 30/40%, if the Naira goes to 200Naira to the Dollar, when you can no longer pay salaries, when inflation goes to 18% because we have printed money..then we will know what a crisis is! ” he said.

You can watch the video below.
The referenced section begins from 7:44.

Unfortunately, these predictions have come to pass. With massive layoffs looming in various sectors as well as general economic slowdown due to the risen dollar especially given Nigeria’s import heavy economic model.

25 Comments

  1. Truth Teller

    February 26, 2015 at 10:49 am

    I don’t know why people didn’t take this man seriously when he was saying all this, now we are seeing the reality. What was the average response? It was ‘God forbid’, has God forbidden it from happening when there are principles and guidelines to be followed? I keep saying that the economic improvement our government is referring to is only visible on paper because they are not in touch with reality. I hope we get out of this mess. The dollar is way above N220/$ in the black market as of today! It’s increase is affecting just about everything and we’re headed for more disaster if not curtailed.

  2. Anon

    February 26, 2015 at 11:06 am

    I like Sanusi, however any keen watcher of the economy could have predicted this. It’s the same with those who can predict the fall of share prices, stocks, speculation about companies being very busy in M&As, new technology etc. Not exactly rocket science.

    • nwa nna

      February 26, 2015 at 11:52 am

      @Anon, I agree with you that anyone who followed/ understood the securities and commodities markets could have predicted the upcoming crisis because all the economic indicators were visible.
      However, what SLS did as CBN governor was that he pointed this out & sounded the alarm but the FGN is way too deep in its cesspool of corruption to care and did not hedge against such economic headwinds. Look no further than the finance minister, NNPC, CBN & the president because these are the key players.

    • prince

      February 26, 2015 at 12:23 pm

      @nwa nna, I would have to slightly disagree…what would you have called the fuel subsidy removal attempt? This is what the Government was trying to do, however we Nigerians decided to go on a strike. The current Naira devaluation is the backlash.

    • zeezee

      February 26, 2015 at 11:55 am

      Please don’t belittle what Sanusi said because he stuck out his neck and predicted it. He’s not the only keen watcher, just as Newton wasn’t the only person who ever saw an apple fall from a tree.

    • me

      February 26, 2015 at 4:12 pm

      Exactly what I wanted to say…subsidy was the first thing GEJ wanted to remove before this speech, but we Nigerians did not agree…so no one should male noise here

  3. Missy J

    February 26, 2015 at 11:27 am

    Thank you Sir!!! Now you all know one of the reasons Obansajo is mad at this administration? GEJ squandered $25billion crude oil savings left behind by Obasanjo’s administration.
    N/B I love the way Sanusi speaks, you just wanna listen to me all day.

  4. kk

    February 26, 2015 at 11:42 am

    @truthteller…… the government took him seriously and that is why they initially wanted the removal of fuel subsidy, however, majority Nigerians are too short-sighted/greedy and decided to go on a nation wide strike. This is the result today!!!!

  5. kk

    February 26, 2015 at 11:45 am

    back again…..Sanusi is sooooooooooooooooooooooooo smart…..love him..

  6. I no send

    February 26, 2015 at 12:03 pm

    i think he was rewarded with a sack….and this is what nigerians want to continue with

  7. prince

    February 26, 2015 at 12:11 pm

    it is only a foolish and clueless government like the one we have now that won’t take Sanusi serious, when he was about to open up their asses, the foolish president suspended him and some youth will keep telling me that GEJ means well for us the young people and this nation as a whole. ‘I SHAME FOR UNA’. Four years down the line, here we are now, my N400k is less than $2k not les than 80% of our population live below $1 in a nation as this. Patience Jonathan as taken over the whole of maitama extension and same things applies to his husband and those that work for him. they have personalized Abuja and make it theirs. I keep paying hundreds of thousand for a one bedroom apartment, how much is my salary.
    God will never forgive GEJ and his cohorts, I’m commenting here with pains in my heart and pain and cry will never seize in their homes as they have chosen to do this to us

  8. nnenne

    February 26, 2015 at 12:44 pm

    Every right thinking fellow knows that our total dependence on oil is stupid and a time bomb. Until recently, diversification was not commenced. The military government should get the most blame.

    Am not an economist but I knew that and used to comment on that on BN.

  9. omooba

    February 26, 2015 at 1:29 pm

    @prince,i feel your pain………jonthan is a fiasco.

  10. new bride

    February 26, 2015 at 1:41 pm

    As well meaning as Occupy Nigeria was, this is the result.

    We’re now paying for it while those who enjoyed (and are still enjoying) the subsidy ‘we’ fought for are getting richer and stashing their dollars abroad!

  11. ak

    February 26, 2015 at 2:18 pm

    This was not a “prediction”

    Anyone who knew that Nigeria depends heavily on oil money would know that this day would come.

    That’s why OBJ saved up $25bn in crude oil account…. Because only an idiot will not pile up food for winter…

    as for Mr KK…. Please keep quiet…. So after they removed the fuel subsidy, and Nigerian’s kicked back at it, tell me where did the money the FG “saved” go to???? Wasn’t it also stolen? Is it our fault that the people we elected are incompetent thieves?

    • kk

      February 27, 2015 at 8:40 am

      @ak please be civil and don’t go about telling people to keep quiet. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. If you don’t agree, then argue with facts and like a civilized being. Now to your actual comment on the subsidy, Please watch the video again and actually Listen and understand. Please start from 2.30mins (corruption aspect) and 3.30mins (subsidy aspect). Dude is talking numbers.

  12. Kunle

    February 26, 2015 at 3:41 pm

    We Alll should shut our dirty mouth, when the opposition party was fighting the removal of subsidy, we didn’t know we were postponing the bad days….we should all blame ourselves..not GEJ

  13. Ebony

    February 26, 2015 at 3:41 pm

    I remember those times. When people went on strike over the subsidy removal.
    As Sanusi said “Are you in this world?”
    I recall how much Jonathan was insulted. We need to learn to listen to and understand other people’s opinions, instead of going into lynch/mob mode when we hear an opinion different from ours.
    It irks me when people say “Nigeria is rich, we have money to feed everyone, we are one of the top oil producers/exporters”, and go ahead to say “look at Saudi Arabia”. Think per capita people!
    And if past govts had done what they were supposed to do when they were in power, we wouldn’t be in a position of picking healthcare or security, which is a priority now? Because the basics would have been in place
    People are trying to right the wrongs of decades past and we go into lynch mode.
    Stop allowing bias, tribalism, sentiments, superiority complex cloud your judgement!

  14. Chivhi

    February 26, 2015 at 3:42 pm

    Father Lord pls let Nigerians vote wIsley I want change gej has ruined Nigeria

    • me

      February 26, 2015 at 4:16 pm

      You must be 16

  15. nwa nna

    February 26, 2015 at 4:22 pm

    @prince, there was never a fuel subsidy! It was and is still a scam used to loot Nigeria dating back to the IBB days. Former minister of petroleum the Tam David West and even GMB has stated in past interviews that there is nothing like fuel subsidy, so again to my point how can you remove what never existed except on paper?

    • prince

      February 26, 2015 at 4:55 pm

      @nwa nna, I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but both your comments are quite contradictory!!!! You have agreed that SLS (Sanusi Lamido ) pointed out the situation but now you are saying the Fuel subsidy is a scam??? So Sanusi is lying?? You are one of the reasons Nigeria is in this mess today. SLS has clearly stated why the removal of subsidy was needed but you are oblivious to that fact. This is all economics….the numbers speak for themselves!

    • Nwa nna

      February 26, 2015 at 10:51 pm

      @prince, Not insinuating that SLS was lying, he obviously didn’t want to directly come out stating the fact that the fuel subsidy was a SCAM being perpetuated by FGN & select individuals hence his call for its removal!

  16. nwa nna

    February 26, 2015 at 11:11 pm

    @prince and other BN readers that want a better understanding of the fuel subsidy SCAM here’s an interview with Prof. Tam David West former minister of petroleum under GMB talking about the fuel subsidy scam being used to fleece Nigeria. Enjoy! youtu.be/hVWxjPVlncc

  17. anon

    February 27, 2015 at 4:29 am

    We would’nt need a fuel subsidy if the refineries are working as they should. Just another example of how the current government’s inefficiencies have cascaded.

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